50% new Mining vehicles would be electric by 2035

Bloomberg: Electric Vehicles, the new “Peak Oil Crisis”

Video 1: Future of Oil, Electricity, Biofuel, solar Energy by Bloomberg

The replacement won’t be for one of the renewables, but for a mix of all:

Video 2: Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade

February 24, 2016 – There are more than one billion cars on the road worldwide today, and only one tenth of one percent of them have a plug. OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one percent. But don’t be so sure. By 2020, some electric cars and SUVs will be faster, safer, cheaper, and more convenient than their gasoline counterparts. What if people just stop buying oil? In the first episode of our animated series, Sooner Than You Think, Bloomberg’s Tom Randall does the math on when oil markets might be headed for the big crash.

 

The “S Curve”

One of the most interesting concepts of the precedent video is the application of “S Curve” to the electric vehicles as you can observe in next to images:

Scurve_technology

The “S curve” applied to Refrigerator, Color TV, Computer, Cellphone markets

The “S curve” application to technologies has been demonstrated in the refrigerator, color TV, Computer and Cellphone markets (see next future)

SCurve-tv-comp-celphone

 

The “S Curve” to Electric Cars

This is the forecast of the Bloomberg’s video. 50% share by 2040!!

SCURVE-EV

And what about when we apply this forecast to Mining?

Extractive Industries (Mining) fossil fuel replacement

Mining requires around the 10% of prime energy in the world. Even with expected one third increase of global energy demand by 2030 (IEA; 12015), mining share would achieve 15-17%%, this growing forecast about mining energy consumption would be spectacular driven by global metals demand and deep drop of mineral law. If we follow the Bloomberg’s forecasts (precedent  videos: 50% of Electric Vehicles by 2040) and we apply to mining … the business as usual disruption in mining would be colossal.

2040-EV-share

 

Why 50% share for mining EV by 2035?

Mining vehicles do not have the problem of autonomy and there are 8 value propositions of Electric Vehicles as we mentioned in a previous article (Why a Tesla business model is compelling for the mining industry?). Because these ideal characteristics EV for mining and the Bloomberg’s forecast, we can assume safely that the share of electric vehicles arrive before 50% than the rest of the world market. Thus EV penetration 50% should be by 2035. This scenario will mean a market disruption of diesel providers and transport equipment for the industry and, collaterally, it will double the electricity market for mining, mainly renewable energies. It would be likely see even burning coal (or gas) to produce electricity to charge batteries in mining trucks.

2 SCURVE-EV 2

 

 

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LinkedIn Group: Renewable energy for Mining and Oil:

If  you are interesting about these topics, please you are welcome to participate on the LinkedIn group about

 “Renewable Energy for Mining and Oil Industry”.

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  1. prof Willem Riedijk

    Dear Arnold I am quite impressed At april 28th there is a symposion at TU Vienna Than I am 30 years a professor of TU Vienna Maybe you remember I am not a computer prince (must be my generation) but I would like to use part of these videos in my keunote address Have you got any idea how I can do that Take care and may you be in good health kind greetings Willem